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1 week ago
Disappointing end to 2024 in Polish industry
Polish industry disappointed again, having grown by a mere 0.2% yoy in December. In hindsight, the October spike in industrial output indeed was too good to be true. Looking ahead, most of the drags on Polish industry will fade in 2025.
2 months ago
An unexpected rebound in the Polish industry
In recent months, the industrial sector has accustomed us to disappointing results. However, the losing streak has ended—industrial production in October grew by 4.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding forecasts (1–1.5% year-on-year). It feels like a case of "reverse déjà vu"—just as September's retail sales seemed too bad to be true, October's industrial production appears almost too good to be true. In the following sections, we analyze this result and propose some hypotheses.
3 months ago
Polish industry in a horizontal trend
No fireworks in the industrial production reading for September. Seasonally adjusted figures show stagnation (-0.2% month-on-month), with no compelling signs of a potential rebound. The coming months are likely to follow a similar pattern, with more substantial arguments for the recovery of domestic industry expected only in 2025.
4 months ago
No signs of Polish industry recovery
Industrial production remains mired in months-long stagnation. The 1.5% year-on-year decline in August is essentially a continuation of fluctuations caused by an atypical calendar of working days. There are few arguments supporting a potential recovery in manufacturing, primarily due to the economic conditions in the Eurozone.