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3 days ago
Tariff war will reduce inflation in Poland
This week the final inflation reading for March will be published (Tuesday), followed by the core inflation release the day after. Polish assets should remain responsive mainly to geopolitical factors.
1 week ago
The turn towards May interest rate cuts
Amid raging trade wars, we have a light week in terms of economic data. The only Polish macro release scheduled for the week is the monthly balance of payments figures for February (on Friday).
2 weeks ago
Economic convergence of Poland
There will be a flash CPI reading today (we expect 5,1% yoy for March) and a rate setting meeting of NBP on Wednesday in Poland. The rates won't change but a motion to cut them - first in long time - might appear as some MPC members express greater willingness to loosen monetary policy. We think that this will happen only in July 2025.
1 month ago
Steady as she goes: Polish economy regained momentum in Q4
No important events or macro releases are scheduled for the week. Not even a MPC meeting, which – unusually – will take place in the second, not the first week of the month. Geopolitics, trade policy and US labor market data will dominate the newsflow.
5 months ago
Trumped-up fears over Polish assets
D. Trump's victory in the US presidential election is the main point of interest for financial markets in the coming month. We believe that Polish assets (currencies, shares, bonds) have undeservingly sold off, considering the actual risks that our country is facing. Below, we present our macroeconomic forecasts and financial markets scenario for November.