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Selected tag: GDP
4 days ago
Polish GDP accelerated at the end of the year
Polish economy surprised to the upside in 2024, having grown by 2.9% in the whole year and by 3.2-3.5% yoy in the fourth quarter. We expect 2025 to be even better, mainly due to investment.
2 months ago
A perfect storm for the euro
GDP growth did not surprise, but its structure did. The weakness of consumption will stay with us for longer. At the same time, we are approaching the moment when the Monetary Policy Council will resume rate cuts. We present our macroeconomic forecasts and scenario for financial markets in December.
2 months ago
A cold summer for the Polish economy
The forecasts were accurate, and Poland's GDP slowed from 3.2% year-on-year in Q2 to 2.7% in Q3 of this year. On a quarterly basis, the economy experienced a slight contraction (-0.2% quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted). In our view, the primary driver of this weakness was private consumption. Looking ahead, 2025 is expected to show improvement.
4 months ago
Hawkish spring, dovish autumn
Macro Compass October 2024 - our macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
4 months ago
A dreadful August for the Polish economy
Not a single August release surprised to the upside. Today, construction showed weakness (-9.6% year-on-year), and retail sales grew by just +2.6% year-on-year. In both cases, these results reflect ongoing trends observed for months. Given the lack of significant surprises, there is no reason to adjust the GDP forecast for this year, which remains at an annual average of 3%.
5 months ago
Mirage of cutting interest rates in Poland
Macro Compass September 2024 - our macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets