3 days ago
Fuels fuelled Poland's March inflation
Poland’s consumer inflation (CPI) surged in March to 3.0% yoy, mainly driven by rising fuel prices (+15.4% mom). Apart from the fuels, price pressures remain limited for now – core inflation and food prices are stable. In turn, in April we expect CPI to decline to around 2.5% yoy because of the government program reducing indirect taxes on fuels. Therefore, the March 3.0% yoy reading could represent a local peak this year. The Monetary Policy Council will remain cautious amid elevated uncertainty, and we do not expect interest rate changes in 2026.
4 days ago
Polish government responds to higher fuel prices
The last week before the Easter holidays will be dominated on the markets by developments in the Middle East conflict. The macroeconomic calendar features numerous inflation releases (including the flash estimate of Poland’s March CPI – we expect a clear increase to around 3.5% yoy). At the very end of the week, attention will also turn to the U.S. labour market data (non‑farm payrolls).
1 week ago
February retail sales disappointed
Retail sales rose by 5% yoy in February, slightly below market consensus and our assumptions. Retail sales were likely adversely affected by weather conditions which were unfavourable to shopping (very low temperatures). Nevertheless, this is the last postcard sent by Polish consumers from before the outbreak of the Gulf War. The picture painted by this data is middling. In the coming months, a combination of relatively low growth in nominal incomes and rising inflation will constrict the purchasing power of Polish consumers further. We expect consumption to slow to 3.2% this year, with risks to the downside.
2 weeks ago
Winter's grip on Polish economy eased somewhat in February
According to the data published today, industrial production rose by 1.5% yoy in February, while construction output fell by 13.7% yoy. In both cases, this marks an improvement compared to the extremely poor January. Nevertheless, the weakness in construction production, driven by weather conditions, will weigh on Poland’s economic growth in the first quarter. The delay in construction investment is one of the reasons why we decided to lower GDP growth forecasts for this year (from 4.0 to 3.8%).
2 weeks ago
A cold February in the Polish labour market
Wage growth in the enterprise sector remained unchanged in February at 6.1% yoy, significantly below the consensus estimate (6.6%). This provides strong support for our forecast for the current year (5.5%). Wage pressure is set to remain subdued, and any potential inflation rebound related to the conflict in the Middle East should not translate into stronger wage growth, given the weakening bargaining power of employees. In fact, the impact of the conflict on wages is likely to be the opposite due to slight deterioration of economic conditions. Meanwhile, employment declined by 0.8% yoy in February, in line with expectations.
2 weeks ago
Poland gets an EM treatment
This will be a busy week, even though macroeconomic events remain in the back seat. In Polish macro calendar there are several highlights: March consumer confidence on Wednesday, industrial output and labor market data on Thursday, Moody’s rating decision on Friday.