4 days ago
Polish GDP accelerated at the end of the year
Polish economy surprised to the upside in 2024, having grown by 2.9% in the whole year and by 3.2-3.5% yoy in the fourth quarter. We expect 2025 to be even better, mainly due to investment.
1 week ago
Disappointing end to 2024 in Polish industry
Polish industry disappointed again, having grown by a mere 0.2% yoy in December. In hindsight, the October spike in industrial output indeed was too good to be true. Looking ahead, most of the drags on Polish industry will fade in 2025.
2 months ago
Poland's CPI slowed down, but only due to statistical effect
The preliminary estimate of national CPI inflation for November indicates a decline to 4.6% year-on-year. The reading aligns with market expectations. The reduction in inflation was driven by the high base effect from last year, particularly in fuel prices. However, core inflation remains elevated. By the end of 2024, inflation is expected to be close to 5% year-on-year, with an annual average of 3.7%.
2 months ago
Polish consumer not as weak as portrayed in September
Alert canceled. Retail sales in October increased by 1.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The September slump now appears to have been a one-time anomaly, with most of the losses recovered in October. However, it does not change the fact that retail sales of goods remain unimpressive, with levels stagnating for nearly three years. We maintain our forecast that GDP growth in 2024 will be close to 3.0%.
2 months ago
Trends in the Polish labor market confirmed in October
The labor market situation in October was almost identical to that of September. Wage growth remained slightly above 10% year-on-year, while employment again declined by 0.5% year-on-year (though it was very close to a 0.6% drop). Significant changes in these trends are unlikely before the end of the year.
2 months ago
An unexpected rebound in the Polish industry
In recent months, the industrial sector has accustomed us to disappointing results. However, the losing streak has ended—industrial production in October grew by 4.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding forecasts (1–1.5% year-on-year). It feels like a case of "reverse déjà vu"—just as September's retail sales seemed too bad to be true, October's industrial production appears almost too good to be true. In the following sections, we analyze this result and propose some hypotheses.