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1 week ago
Smooth summer sailing for Polish consumers
Retail sales slowed from 6.2% in June to 3.9% yoy in July. This result is close to the consensus estimate and the long-term average. The slowdown in sales can be attributed primarily to the expiration of the fuel price relief package and a less favorable arrangement of trading days. Polish consumers remain in good shape, although retail sales may not be the best indicator of this.
1 month ago
News of Polish consumers’ death were greatly exaggerated (so far)
Retail sales surprised on the upside once again, rising 6.2% yoy (about 1 pp. faster than forecasted). After several months of volatility, retail sales have normalized in terms of both growth and structure. This bodes better for private consumption than we had anticipated a few months ago, although still needs to be weighed against this year’s decline in consumer purchasing power and the weakness in services consumption. We maintain our view that private consumption will slow this year.
2 months ago
Polish retail sales move closer to normalization in May
In May, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% yoy, close to the consensus and our forecasts. The breakdown of the data also contains very few surprises. The structure of retail sales is normalizing after the significant fluctuations seen in the previous two months. Looking at the bigger picture, even if the impact of the Gulf War turns out to be less severe than feared just a few weeks ago, consumption is set to slow in 2026. The latest sales data are consistent with this outlook.
3 months ago
Polish retail sales disappointed – both in general and in the specifics
Retail sales disappointed in April, rising by 1.3% yoy (consensus and our forecast: 3% yoy). The March and April readings are largely one-off events and should be viewed in conjunction. Nevertheless, April’s sales figures contain negative signals pointing to weak private consumption in the coming quarters. We expect this to be the main channel through which the oil shock will impact the Polish economy.
5 months ago
February retail sales disappointed
Retail sales rose by 5% yoy in February, slightly below market consensus and our assumptions. Retail sales were likely adversely affected by weather conditions which were unfavourable to shopping (very low temperatures). Nevertheless, this is the last postcard sent by Polish consumers from before the outbreak of the Gulf War. The picture painted by this data is middling. In the coming months, a combination of relatively low growth in nominal incomes and rising inflation will constrict the purchasing power of Polish consumers further. We expect consumption to slow to 3.2% this year, with risks to the downside.
6 months ago
Winter disrupted Poles’ shopping patterns
Unlike industrial and construction production, retail sales did not disappoint. On the contrary – it rose by 4.4% yoy in January, which beat the consensus by 1 percentage points, though it still fell short of December's growth rate (5.3% yoy). Nevertheless, there are several surprises within detailed sales categories, suggesting that consumption patterns were disturbed by low temperatures. Strong retail sales for January indicate that private consumption is maintaining a solid pace of growth.