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1 week ago
February retail sales disappointed
Retail sales rose by 5% yoy in February, slightly below market consensus and our assumptions. Retail sales were likely adversely affected by weather conditions which were unfavourable to shopping (very low temperatures). Nevertheless, this is the last postcard sent by Polish consumers from before the outbreak of the Gulf War. The picture painted by this data is middling. In the coming months, a combination of relatively low growth in nominal incomes and rising inflation will constrict the purchasing power of Polish consumers further. We expect consumption to slow to 3.2% this year, with risks to the downside.
5 weeks ago
Winter disrupted Poles’ shopping patterns
Unlike industrial and construction production, retail sales did not disappoint. On the contrary – it rose by 4.4% yoy in January, which beat the consensus by 1 percentage points, though it still fell short of December's growth rate (5.3% yoy). Nevertheless, there are several surprises within detailed sales categories, suggesting that consumption patterns were disturbed by low temperatures. Strong retail sales for January indicate that private consumption is maintaining a solid pace of growth.
3 months ago
Polish consumer still in play, though November was muted
After weaker readings in industrial and construction output, November growth of retail sales also disappointed, slowing to 3.1% yoy (consensus: 3.9%). Nevertheless, the structure of retail sales remains positive, with high sales of durable goods standing out. Private consumption continues to be the main driver of GDP growth, supported by improving consumer sentiment and disinflation. In 2026, investment is expected to join consumption as a key growth driver.
4 months ago
Polish consumers remain in high spirits
October retail sales data confirm good confidence of Polish consumers. Retail sales grew by 5.4% yoy, surpassing market expectations of 4.0%. Consumers remain in very good shape, with particularly strong demand for durable goods. This increases the likelihood that GDP growth in 4Q25 will reach the long-anticipated 4% yoy.
5 months ago
Polish consumers still showing strength
After positive surprises in industry and construction, we got a slightly disappointing retail sales reading for September, which accelerated from 3.1% to 6.4% yoy, compared to the consensus of 6.8% and our forecast of 8% yoy. Nevertheless, the forecasting error does not stem from a deterioration in the sector’s economic conditions. The positive narrative about the Polish consumer still holds.
6 months ago
Polish consumers in good shape
This time, there were no surprises - retail sales slowed down exactly as economists had expected, from 4.8% to 3.1% yoy. The pace of August sales is therefore close to the average from last year and this year. However, the acceleration we anticipate in the coming months should be noticeable.