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3 weeks ago
February's chill affected Polish consumers as well
Retail sales fell by 0.5% yoy in February, significantly below forecasts, which predicted an increase of 3% yoy. Although sector-specific factors played a role in February, the slowdown affected almost all sales categories. Consequently, we are back to the scenario of 3% yoy consumption growth in 2025, without significant upside risks.
1 month ago
Polish consumers are back in the game
Compared to industrial or construction output there was no doubt or nuance regarding the strength of January retail sales data. This suggests that Polish consumers stopped saving excessively. There is even some scope for a positive surprise in 2025.
4 months ago
Polish consumer not as weak as portrayed in September
Alert canceled. Retail sales in October increased by 1.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The September slump now appears to have been a one-time anomaly, with most of the losses recovered in October. However, it does not change the fact that retail sales of goods remain unimpressive, with levels stagnating for nearly three years. We maintain our forecast that GDP growth in 2024 will be close to 3.0%.
5 months ago
A puzzlingly bad September for Polish retail sales
We anticipated that September of this year was not a strong month for Polish consumers—our retail sales forecast was 0% year-on-year, while the consensus optimistically expected growth of around 2.5% year-on-year. However, sales plunged by 3% year-on-year, marking one of the largest negative surprises in retail sales history. Indeed, these figures seem too poor to be true.
6 months ago
A dreadful August for the Polish economy
Not a single August release surprised to the upside. Today, construction showed weakness (-9.6% year-on-year), and retail sales grew by just +2.6% year-on-year. In both cases, these results reflect ongoing trends observed for months. Given the lack of significant surprises, there is no reason to adjust the GDP forecast for this year, which remains at an annual average of 3%.