Search results
Selected tag: trade
1 week ago
Retail sales slowed down, yet it accelerated
In September, retail sales (in constant prices) rose 3.3% yoy, following a 3.8% increase the previous month. At first glance, this is one of the weaker readings in recent months and the latest in a series of such readings. However, much of the volatility in sales in recent months has been driven by fuel prices, and September is no exception. Excluding fuel, sales grew at their fastest pace since June and have not slowed this year. The negative effects of the oil shock are evident in the consumption of services, not goods.
5 weeks ago
August sun failed to heat consumption up
In August, retail sales grew at almost exactly the same rate as in July (3.8% vs. 3.9% yoy). The details of the report do not reveal many surprises. Overall, the August retail sales figure is in line with trends from the past few years. We know, of course, that consumers have cut back on spending this year in response to an unexpected decline in the purchasing power of their incomes, but this must have affected services, not goods.
2 months ago
Smooth summer sailing for Polish consumers
Retail sales slowed from 6.2% in June to 3.9% yoy in July. This result is close to the consensus estimate and the long-term average. The slowdown in sales can be attributed primarily to the expiration of the fuel price relief package and a less favorable arrangement of trading days. Polish consumers remain in good shape, although retail sales may not be the best indicator of this.
3 months ago
News of Polish consumers’ death were greatly exaggerated (so far)
Retail sales surprised on the upside once again, rising 6.2% yoy (about 1 pp. faster than forecasted). After several months of volatility, retail sales have normalized in terms of both growth and structure. This bodes better for private consumption than we had anticipated a few months ago, although still needs to be weighed against this year’s decline in consumer purchasing power and the weakness in services consumption. We maintain our view that private consumption will slow this year.
4 months ago
Polish retail sales move closer to normalization in May
In May, retail sales accelerated to 3.0% yoy, close to the consensus and our forecasts. The breakdown of the data also contains very few surprises. The structure of retail sales is normalizing after the significant fluctuations seen in the previous two months. Looking at the bigger picture, even if the impact of the Gulf War turns out to be less severe than feared just a few weeks ago, consumption is set to slow in 2026. The latest sales data are consistent with this outlook.
5 months ago
Polish retail sales disappointed – both in general and in the specifics
Retail sales disappointed in April, rising by 1.3% yoy (consensus and our forecast: 3% yoy). The March and April readings are largely one-off events and should be viewed in conjunction. Nevertheless, April’s sales figures contain negative signals pointing to weak private consumption in the coming quarters. We expect this to be the main channel through which the oil shock will impact the Polish economy.