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Selected tag: inflation
2 days ago
End of inflationary "plateau" in Poland. Now it is time for solid disinflation
In the final reading, the StatOffice confirmed March CPI for Poland at 4.9% yoy. Now it is time for solid disinflation.
1 week ago
US tariff policy steals the show
Macro Compass April 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts for Poland, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
2 weeks ago
Instead of a peak, we have a plateau - CPI in Poland surprised to the downside again
The peak of Poland's CPI inflation was supposed to be in March, but it has flattened out... According to the flash estimate, CPI in Poland remained at the level of the previous two months, i.e. 4.9% yoy in March, forming a solid plateau. Compared to the previous month, prices increased by 0.1% mom. The March result once again surprised analysts with a lower reading (expectations of 5.0-5.1% yoy), which only strengthens the belief that inflationary pressure is weakening.
4 weeks ago
New consumer basket weights caused a lot of confusion. We start 2025 with inflation in Poland below 5%
This year, the revision of the consumer basket weights caused a lot of confusion - for this reason, the preliminary CPI estimate for January published a month ago was revised down by as much as 0.4 percentage points to 4.9% yoy. Moreover, inflation in February stabilized at 4.9% yoy. The large impact of the revision has caused all inflation expected paths, including the NBP one, to go down ("dovish" factor).
5 weeks ago
Tariff carousel pushes macro into the backseat
Macro Compass March 2025 - our macroeconomic forecasts, preview of monthly data readings and the expected scenario of events on the financial markets
2 months ago
The beginning of 2025 with inflationary (negative) surprise in Poland
After a short break, emotions related to inflation publications from Poland’s economy have returned. Moreover, they have returned with a rather strong accent, because January CPI reading surprised (as in other countries in the region) upwards, accelerating to 5.3% yoy from 4.7% in the previous month. This reading is clearly higher than market expectations (5.0%). Compared to the previous month, consumer prices increased by 1.0%.