5 days ago
Instead of a peak, we have a plateau - CPI in Poland surprised to the downside again
The peak of Poland's CPI inflation was supposed to be in March, but it has flattened out... According to the flash estimate, CPI in Poland remained at the level of the previous two months, i.e. 4.9% yoy in March, forming a solid plateau. Compared to the previous month, prices increased by 0.1% mom. The March result once again surprised analysts with a lower reading (expectations of 5.0-5.1% yoy), which only strengthens the belief that inflationary pressure is weakening.
5 days ago
Economic convergence of Poland
There will be a flash CPI reading today (we expect 5,1% yoy for March) and a rate setting meeting of NBP on Wednesday in Poland. The rates won't change but a motion to cut them - first in long time - might appear as some MPC members express greater willingness to loosen monetary policy. We think that this will happen only in July 2025.
1 week ago
February's chill affected Polish consumers as well
Retail sales fell by 0.5% yoy in February, significantly below forecasts, which predicted an increase of 3% yoy. Although sector-specific factors played a role in February, the slowdown affected almost all sales categories. Consequently, we are back to the scenario of 3% yoy consumption growth in 2025, without significant upside risks.
1 week ago
"False" fall in Poland's core inflation
Publications from the Polish real economy for February are almost finished with today's retail sales reading – similarly to last week's data it surprised to the downside. Tomorrow the February's unemployment rate will be published and according to the flash reading it has increased to 5.5%. However, we expect a more optimistic reading of 5.4%.
2 weeks ago
Disappointing February for industry and construction
Today, Statistics Poland published data on industrial and construction output for February. Both disappointed, albeit to a small extent. Industrial production shrank by 2% yoy (- 1% expected), while construction output remained unchanged yoy (+2-2.5% expected). In the following commentary, we discuss these disappointments and their implications. However, we do not change our view on the entire year of 2025.
2 weeks ago
Poland's labour market got chilly in February
In February, we saw an unexpectedly strong slowdown in wage growth to 7.9% yoy from 9.2% a month earlier. This is a very important sign for the prospects of Poland's economy, although one swallow does not make a summer. In addition, we learned about, as it turned out, the predictable employment reading, which fell by 0.9% yoy in February, similarly to January.