Polish Economy: Macroeconomic Research and Analysis - Bank Pekao S.A.

3 days ago

Polish retail sales posted a slight decrease in March

Retail sales fell by 0.3% yoy in March, slightly below forecasts that predicted an increase of 0.3-0.4% yoy. Last month, consumer behavior was influenced by two factors: late Easter, which reduced food sales (a transitory factor), and the rebound in durable goods sales. Therefore, this reading is seen as positive, a break from the general March gloom.
4 days ago

Disappointing Spring for Polish industry and construction

This year we can hardly find any data that surprised us positively. March hasn’t brought it either – the yoy increase in industrial production in March turned out to be 1 p.p. lower than forecast, which fits the long-term stagnation of the sector. Construction output has been even more disappointing, as it shrank by 1.1% (compared to the expected increase of 5.5% yoy). Downside risks to economic growth are therefore accumulating.
4 days ago

Solidly stable March in the Polish labor market

March was a quiet month for the labor market. Wage growth stabilized at 7.7% yoy, similarly to February's reading (7.9%), which in our opinion is a crucial signal for the Monetary Policy Council. Employment growth did not surprise either, stabilizing at -0.9% yoy.
4 days ago

Inflation in Poland: where are we, where are we going?

Coming back straight after the Easter holidays, the calendar of Poland macro data releases for March is bursting at the seams (labour market, industrial and construction output, PPI). However, the most important thing for the financial markets still will be the US tariff statements. From the macro data, the March flash PMIs will probably show a deterioration in sentiment.
1 week ago

End of inflationary "plateau" in Poland. Now it is time for solid disinflation

In the final reading, the StatOffice confirmed March CPI for Poland at 4.9% yoy. Now it is time for solid disinflation.
1 week ago

Tariff war will reduce inflation in Poland

This week the final inflation reading for March will be published (Tuesday), followed by the core inflation release the day after. Polish assets should remain responsive mainly to geopolitical factors.

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