Polish retail sales posted a slight decrease in March
Retail sales fell by 0.3% yoy in March, slightly below forecasts that predicted an increase of 0.3-0.4% yoy. Last month, consumer behavior was influenced by two factors: late Easter, which reduced food sales (a transitory factor), and the rebound in durable goods sales. Therefore, this reading is seen as positive, a break from the general March gloom.
March and April are peculiar months for retail sales. The variable timing of Easter significantly affects the timing of the peak food purchases (the earlier the date, the faster sales grow in March – see the chart below). Given the high share of food in total sales (almost 26%), this causes significant fluctuations in total retail sales growth between these two months. The Easter effect can account for as much as 2-3 p.p. of swings in total retail sales yoy growth during this period and is more than capable of masking trends in all other categories.
Retail sales of food compared to the timing of Easter
Note: timing of Easter is % of the March-April period (61 days total) that covers the period up to Easter Sunday
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
This was also the case in 2025. On one hand, we observed a major slowdown in food sales (in constant prices from -2.2 to -9.4% yoy). On the other hand, in March, there was a significant acceleration in the sales of durable goods: cars (from 5.1 to 18.4% yoy) as well as furniture and household appliances (from 5.8 to 12.9% yoy). The overall picture is complemented by decent results for clothing and footwear (6.7% yoy) and a slowdown in cosmetics and pharmaceuticals (to 5% yoy). From our perspective, the biggest disappointment is the behavior of the "Other" category (to a first approximation – construction stores), whose sales fell by 12.2% yoy in March. Were it not for this, both the consensus forecast and ours would have nailed the figure.
Retail sales of goods by category (% yoy, constant prices)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
On a final note, let’s take a look at seasonally adjusted sales. In this metric, sales rose by 1.9% mom in March, compensating for most of the losses from the previous month, which remains weak in our view. The entire quarter closes with a 1.1% year-on-year sales increase, which is a rather weak but not catastrophic result. Based on the available data, we estimate that private consumption increased by around 3% yoy in Q1 (note that total consumption is practically insensitive to the timing of Easter). With the full monthly data package for March, we also assess that the Polish economy grew by 3.2% yoy in Q1’25, slightly below the initial assumptions (3.5%), mainly due to a slower-than-expected start to investments.
Retail sales and private consumption (end of 2019 = 100%)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
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