The average wage in the enterprise sector increased by 7.7% yoy in March, slightly less than a month earlier (7.9% yoy) and exactly as we and the consensus had expected. The lack of surprise in the data is the biggest disappointment for the analysts, because there is usually nothing that could encourage in-depth analysis or seem interesting. And unfortunately, this is exactly what the March reading was. We will not bore the readers with an essay on the high base effect in mining and agriculture from last month or bonuses in the "information and communication" section, because these are factors that had a negligible impact on the wage growth in March. However, what is most crucial in March data is the confirmation of the trend observed since the beginning of the year. The wage growth rate is falling and has most likely permanently decreased to a level that we can consider "normal" and "not shock-related". In 2025, for the first time since wages in 2022 reacted to the inflation shock, we saw a 7% wage growth for two months in a row. Thus, we are less than a percentage point away from the wage growth observed in 2017-19, i.e. times of relative economic stability.

Apart from the symbolic dimension, today's reading also has a practical dimension. Namely, the potentially permanent decline in wage growth to around 7-8% gives the MPC a strong argument for an interest rate cute (because after all, the current level of the reference rate also applied when wages grew at a rate of 10-12% yoy!). Accompanied by the weakening global setiment, encouraging CPI inflation readings with the prospect of reaching the MPC target at the turn of the year, and weaker than expected results of industry and construction for March, the Council has more dovish premises at its disposal than ever before. In our opinion, rate cuts in May and June (2x 50bp) are a sealed scenario. The question we ask ourselves is whether there will be room for even more cuts this year and for now we not come to a clear conclusion yet.

Wage momentum (% yoy, SA), i.e. what the annual wage growth would be if the current monthly growth rated after seasonal adjustment remained unchanged the entire year

Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research

Average employment in the corporate sector fell by 0.9% yoy in March, compared to a 0.9% drop in February. And similarly to wages, this is no surprise to us or the consensus. According to the StatOffice, the number of full-time jobs fell by 8k compared to the previous month. Hence, 2025 still looks similarly weak to the previous two years, and this should not change in the coming months. We still believe that the room for deviation from the patterns of previous years will appear in the second half of the year at the earliest, although we should not expect a spectacular rebound then.

Cumulative change in employment since January of a given year (thous. full-time positions)

Source: StatOffice, Pekao Research