Today, the Statistics Poland (GUS) published preliminary GDP data for 2024 – according to which GDP grew by 2.9% (yoy), which is a positive surprise compared to the consensus and our forecast (2.7-2.8%). Every year, what matters more to us is what the annual figure implies for Q4 GDP and its structure. Generally, this time it paints a more positive picture than what could be estimated based on monthly data from that period, which generally disappointed.

Annual GDP growth (%)

Source: GUS, Macrobond, Pekao Research

1. GDP in the fourth quarter grew by 3.2-3.5% yoy. This is a good outturn – before today's publication, we assumed that it would not even reach 3% yoy.
2. Private consumption rose by 3.1% in 2024, which means that in the fourth quarter alone it accelerated from 0.3 to 3.1-3.4% yoy. This is a much larger swing than indicated by retail sales data. In addition to the (implied) good performance of service consumption, the low base from the previous year (the fourth quarter of 2023 was extremely weak) played a significant role. Nevertheless, we expected such acceleration, and the 0.1 percentage point difference relative to forecasts does not contradict our long-standing thesis about significant rebuilding of savings in 2024.
3. Investment grew by 1.3% in 2024, approximately 1 percentage point faster than we assumed before this publication. This was achieved at the last minute (0.7-0.8% yoy in Q4). Of course, these numbers will still be subject to revision (in recent years, investments have generally been revised downward) after taking into account more complete data in April and October, but for a bottom in the investment cycle, this is a very decent result.
4. Public consumption, according to our estimates, slowed from over 10% in the first half of the year to 3.7% yoy in Q4. There is still a lot that could change here, but we see this as the first visible effect of belt tightening by the government (investment, e.g. military equipment, is clearly prioritized here).
5. We top up the fourth-quarter GDP with a negative contribution from net exports (-1 p.p.) and further buildup in inventories (+1.8 p.p.). No surprises compared to our assumptions here – if anything, Q4 probably saw slightly faster import growth, which should not be surprising given the resilience in investment.

GDP growth and its structure (% year-on-year)

Source: GUS, Macrobond, Pekao Research

Does today's reading have implications for economic growth in the coming quarters? Not particularly. There were no major surprises that would overturn our understanding of the economy and the mechanics of its growth in recent months. We can cautiously consider the relatively good investment growth as a good omen for 2025 – after all, it is investments that, in our opinion, will cause the Polish economy to grow by 4%.