Poland was one of EU's three fastest-growing economies in Q4'24
As indicated by preliminary estimates of annual GDP, Polish economy accelerated to 3.2% yoy in Q4'24. The current economic recovery remains slow by historical standards. Despite this, Poland was EU's fastest-growing large economy and one of top three in general.
Q4 GDP is always the least exciting one, because potential surprises are significantly limited by the fact that GDP growth and its components can be calculated quite precisely based on data for the first three quarters and the annual GDP estimate. These data for 2024 allowed us to estimate GDP growth at 3.2-3.5% year-on-year. Today GUS confirmed this and reported that Q4’24 GDP rose by 3.2% yoy and 1.3% qoq s.a. Obviously, we need to wait two weeks for more details, so today’s figure is all about growth itself.
Real GDP, volume index (Q4'19 = 100, s.a.)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
In comments on previous quarterly GDP figures, we emphasized that the current recovery remains one of the slowest, if not the slowest in this century. The latest data allowed the current recovery to advance to the penultimate place, just a tad faster than the one from 2001-2003. It is so slow that it shifted the GDP path downwards relative to long-term trends. It is not yet clear whether the new GDP path will remain a parallel one compared to the "old" trend. In light of our forecasts, yes, but we do not expect growth to be fast enough to bring GDP back to the old trend. In other words, a strong case cane be made that the energy crisis will have lasting effects on the level of activity in the Polish economy.
Comparison of economic recoveries (cumulative % change from local bottom)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
In addition, we can point out that in Q4 Poland returned to the podium in the ranking of the EU's fastest-growing countries. Having accelerated to 3.7% (yoy, s.a.), Poland outpaced Spain and Lithuania, and among the countries that were growing faster than Poland in previous quarters, only Croatia and Cyprus come out ahead. We do not yet have data for them, though. Regardless, Poland turned out to be the fastest-growing large country in the EU in the last quarter.
GDP growth in selected economies (% yoy, s.a.)
Source: Statistics Poland, Macrobond, Pekao Research
What's next? As readers know, we are among the biggest optimists when it comes to economic growth in 2025, as we forecast that the Polish economy will grow by 4% on average due to a rebound in public investments and an improvement in foreign demand.
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