Current investment recommendations for Bank Pekao S.A. shares
Consensus of expectations for 3Q'24
The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.
| 3Q'24 consensus based on 15 analysts |
change y/y | change q/q | ||||||||
| P&L (PLN mn) | average | median | max | min | 3Q'23 | net | % | 2Q'24 | net | % |
| Revenue | 3939 | 3942 | 4018 | 3875 | 3797 | 142 | 4% | 4036 | (97) | (2%) |
| Core revenue | 3893 | 3894 | 3931 | 3851 | 3718 | 175 | 5% | 3705 | 187 | 5% |
| Net interest income(*) | 3187 | 3190 | 3227 | 3147 | 3015 | 172 | 6% | 3003 | 184 | 6% |
| F&C | 706 | 705 | 711 | 699 | 703 | 3 | 0% | 697 | 9 | 1% |
| Other revenues | 46 | 47 | 80 | 29 | 79 | (33) | (42%) | 336 | (290) | (86%) |
| Costs | (1262) | (1263) | (1241) | (1281) | (1149) | (113) | 10% | (1341) | 79 | (6%) |
| Operating profit | 2677 | 2682 | 2767 | 2601 | 2648 | 29 | 1% | 2549 | 128 | 5% |
| Total provisons | (271) | (283) | (199) | (336) | (173) | (98) | 57% | (438) | 167 | (38%) |
| Net Provisons (***) | (231) | (235) | (170) | (286) | (120) | (111) | 93% | (232) | 1 | (0,4%) |
| Provisions for legal risks CHF (**) (***) | (50) | (50) | (29) | (100) | (53) | 3 | (5%) | (206) | 156 | (76%) |
| Banking Tax | (227) | (227) | (224) | (229) | (218) | (9) | 4% | (233) | 6,1 | 0,0% |
| Net Profit | 1708,6 | 1701 | 1770 | 1626 | 1755 | (46) | (2,6%) | 1419 | 290 | 20,4% |
NOTE:
(*) Net interest income and revenues, without dividends and income from equity investment
Consensus based on 15 forecasts of analysts from: Santander CEE Equity Research; Trigon DM S.A.; BM BOŚ; BM Millennium; WOOD & Company; Erste Securities; Morgan Stanley; Citi Research; PKO BM; BoML; Autonomous Research; Citi Research; BM mBank; RBI International J.P.Morgan and HSBC.
(**) In accordance with the content of the current report No. 25/2024 of July 31, 2024, Bank Pekao S.A. announced that the consolidated financial results of the Bank's Capital Group for the first half of 2024 will include the recognition of a provision for legal risk related to mortgage loans denominated in CHF in the amount of PLN 243 million gross. The full content of the current report is available at the LINK .
(***) Calculated based on components from forecasts.
Last updated on 30.10.2024
Annual Consensus
|
Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding Bank Pekao S.A. performance made by sell-side analysts are theirs alone and do not represent opinions, forecasts or predictions of Pekao or its Management Board. |
Average price target (Last update on 30.10.2024) PLN 182.00 |
| Recommendation | Number | Share |
| Buy (Accumulate, Overweight) | 9 | 60.0% |
| Hold (Neutral, Equal weight) | 5 | 33.3% |
| Sell (Reduce, Underweight) | 1 | 6.7% |
| Total | 15 | 100% |
Last updated on 30.10.2024
Current market consensus of Bank Pekao S.A. for the years 2024-2025
The following table presents consensus estimates for key P&L as well as balance sheet items based on most current estimates developed by equity analysts covering stock of Bank Pekao. Please note that any opinions, estimates or forecasts regarding financial performance of Bank Pekao made by analysts are their sole discretion and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of Bank Pekao or its Management Board.
| 2024E | 2025E | |||||||||
| (PLN mn) | Median | Average | Max | Min | NoF | Median | Average | Max | Min | NoF |
|
Revenues |
15 453 | 15 313 | 15 974 | 13 624 | 15 | 15 596 | 15 335 | 16 605 | 12 414 | 15 |
|
NII |
12 255 | 12 080 | 12 780 | 10 084 | 15 | 12 207 | 12 033 | 13 305 | 8 752 | 15 |
|
F&C |
2 878 | 2 873 | 3 000 | 2 737 | 15 | 3 013 | 3 010 | 3 193 | 2 870 | 15 |
|
Operating costs |
(5 420) | (5 414) | (5 116) | (5 701) | 15 | (5 828) | (5 801) | (5 036) | (6 482) | 15 |
|
Operating profit |
10 033 | 9 899 | 10 858 | 7 923 | 15 | 9 768 | 9 533 | 11 569 | 5 932 | 15 |
|
Provisioning |
(873) | (871) | (614) | (1 298) | 15 | (971) | (930) | (581) | (1 090) | 15 |
|
Net profit |
6 180 | 6 121 | 6 708 | 4 889 | 15 | 5 990 | 5 845 | 6 689 | 3 657 | 15 |
|
Lending growth |
0.9% | 1.8% | 8.5% | (2.2%) | 15 | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 14 |
|
Deposits growth |
7.0% | 7.3% | 15.2% | 0.1% | 15 | 5.2% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 13 |
NOTE: Consensus based on 15 brokers reports published since 06.10.2023
Last updated on 30.10.2024
NoF is the number of forecasts
Operating costs incl. BFG excl. Banking tax
The number of reports included in the consensus may differ from the number of analysts who prepare research on the Bank, due to an outdated forecast date or other reason
Macroeconomic scenario
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | |
| GDP, % | 7.0 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| Private consumption, % y/y | 6.1 | 5.3 | (0.9) | 4.7 | 4.2 |
| Investments, % y/y | 1.2 | 2.7 | 13.1 | (0.6) | 8.2 |
| Unemployment, % eop | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| CPI, % avg | 5.1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 3.4 | 4.9 |
| 3M Wibor, % eop | 2.54 | 7.02 | 5.88 | 5.86 | 5.86 |
| Reference rate, % eop | 1.75 | 6.75 | 5,75 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
| Exchange rate EUR, eop | 4.57 | 4.69 | 4.57 | 4.29 | 4.27 |
| Exchange rate USD, eop | 4.06 | 4.40 | 3.94 | 4.01 | 3.96 |
| Public sector balance, % GDP | (1.8) | (3.7) | (5.1) | (5.3) | (4.9) |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024F(2) | 2025F(2) | |
| Loans, % y/y |
5.1 |
1.7 |
0.0 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
4.8 |
(3.9) |
(2.2) |
2.0 |
5.0 |
|
Mortgage loans PLN |
12.6 |
(1.5) |
2.2 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
|
Consumer loans(1) |
2.0 |
(3.0) |
1.9 |
3.8 |
6.0 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
4.3 |
9.7 |
(3.0) |
2.4 |
3.8 |
| Savings(3), % y/y |
6.9 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
10.9 |
10.3 |
| Deposits, % y/y |
10.1 |
5.1 |
9.6 |
9.0 |
8.9 |
|
Retail, % y/y |
6.6 |
3.5 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.3 |
|
Corporate, % y/y |
10.3 |
11.6 |
8.8 |
6.0 |
8.0 |
| Mutual Funds(4), % y/y |
9.2 |
(23.6) |
29.7 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
(1) all non-mortgage retail loans
(2) internal scenario
(3) deposits + assets in mutual funds dedicated to retail clients
(4) retail customers assets in investment funds
Last updated on 10.07.2024